D&D Note (2.13.2018) ~ Late Day Rally on Light Volume ~
Markets opened lower on the day but around 1:00pm EST we saw a big move up pushing markets to finish in the green on the day. However the move was on light volume which doesn’t lead to strong conviction in the move. The 10YR keeps pushing 2.90% before backing off each time. Oil has drifted back into its old trading range of $55 to $59.
A major call on Bitcoin is for the coin to fall to $900 retracing the parabolic move. The call compares the NASDAQ chart of 1999 with Bitcoin and they nearly mirror each other suggesting we should see a major correction in crypto comparative to the dot.com bubble. In that time we separated the winners (Amazon which still remains) from the losers (pets.com which went to zero and folded). Keep in mind during the bust Amazon did fall 90% before then 10 years later regaining the prior high.
It’s a good time to reread Warren Buffet’s notes from the 1970’s in relation to inflation and rising interest rates. Specifically his accurate call back then to look for companies that create cash flow (like a Boeing today) rather than ones that burn cash (like a Tesla today).
Emerging Markets, specially China equities performed well on the day. Tencent rose 2.33% our largest gainer on the day and Alibaba rose 1.02% o the day.
Facebook was D&D’s worse performer on the day following more bad news that Unilever might pull ads if FB doesn’t clean up their feed.
D&D movers:
– TCEHY up 2.33%
– AMZN up 2.04%
– NVDA up 2.02%
– BABA up 1.02%
– FB down -1.85%
– EMHTF down -1.63%
– APHQF down -1.11%
– TWMJF down -0.87%
Indexes
– DOW up 0.16%
– NASDAQ up 0.45%
– S&P up 0.26%
Sector Movers:
– Real Estate up 0.54%
– Consumer Discretionary up 0.51%
– Financials up 0.44%
– Energy down -0.45%
– Materials down -0.28%
Notes
– US 2-YR 2.106% (up 0.029)
– US 10-YR 2.826% (down -0.027)
– US 30-YR 3.114% (down -0.022)
Volatility
– VIX 25.07 (down -2.11%)
Crypto (1:00 PST)
– BTC $8,710.00
– ETH $847.60
– BCH $1,239.62
– LTC $159.79
Metals
– Gold $1,331.70 (up 0.40%)
– Silver $16.535 (down -0.21%)
– Copper $3.1645 (up 2.53%)
Energy
– Oil $59.20 (down -0.15%)
– Brent $62.79 (up 0.32%)
– Nat Gas $2.605 (up 2.08%)
D&D Investments 
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