D&D Note (3.2.2018) ~ Will NAFTA Survive? ~

D&D Note (3.2.2018) ~ Will NAFTA Survive? ~

An investor has to be scratching their head wondering what exactly was this administration thinking with these tariff’s, or were they even thinking at all? Remember nothing has actually been signed into law yet so for all we know this is just another negotiation tactic.

The remarkable thing is this seems to be targeted at China, however they are only the 11th ranking importer of steel to the US. Who is the number one supplier of steel and also provides the tails to our most expensive fighter jets? Our neighbor to the north Canada.

Then conversely where does China dump steel at reduced prices to work its way into the US? Our neighbor to the south Mexico. If the US experts Canada from the tariff… then China will just dump their steel there.

The biggest implication of these proposed protectionist tariffs is the destruction of the North America Free Trade Agreement NAFTA. These new tariffs could be the thing to erode the agreement. NAFTA is a net gain to the US not a net loss. Perhaps, just perhaps, in the crazy world we live in today these tariffs are just a play to the base and a reason to allow the administration to pivot on NAFTA.

Today D&D saw our speculative position in IMLFF strongly rebound off oversold conditions and rallied 33.63% lifting the portfolio in the green on the day.

Our trade today was adding to our position in SIEGY adjusting our cost basis down in the holding. What told us to buy today was the RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) drifted into oversold territory, volume was under average, and Germany as a market has oversold and not yet got the bounce the US markets have seen.

D&D movers:

– IMLFF up 33.63%

– CNTTF up 3.43%

– NVDA up 1.86%

– GOOG up 0.88%

– EMHTF down -3.97%

– TWMJF down -3.55%

– APHQF down -2.56%

– BA down -1.44%

Indexes

– DOW down -0.29%

– NASDAQ up 1.08%

– S&P up 0.51%

Sector Movers:

– Health up 1.01%

– Technology up 0.97%

– Consumer Staples up 0.82%

– Real Estate down -0.35%

– Materials down -0.25%

– Utilities down -0.24%

Notes

– US 2-YR 2.242% (up 0.036)

– US 10-YR 2.864% (up 0.062)

– US 30-YR 3.14% (up 0.054)

Volatility

– VIX 19.64 (down -12.59%)

Crypto (1:00 PST)

– BTC $11,042.14

– ETH $856.91

– BCH $1,288.08

– LTC $206.91

Metals

– Gold $1,323.10 up 1.37%

– Silver $16.53 up 1.56%

– Copper $3.133 up 0.32%

Energy

– Oil $61.42 up 0.71%

– Brent $64.52 up 1.08%

– Nat Gas $2.71up 0.44%