D&D Note (10.5.2020) ~ Markets Rally On Repricing Perceived Less Uncertainty On Presidents Health And Biden Win Decreasing Possibility Of Contested Election ~
The President’s health has improved according to doctors and will discharge him from the hospital tonight at 6:30pm EST to return to the White House.
White House Physician Dr. Sean Conley refused to say when the President’s last negative Covid-19 test was.
The news of the President leaving the hospital helped remove some of the uncertainty in the market leading to todays rally.
The White House super spreader event of coronavirus is being traced to the Supreme Court nominee unveiling at the White House Rose Garden.
List of GOP testing positive for Covid-19:
- Hope Hicks, counselor to President
- President Trump
- First Lady Melania
- Chris Christie, former NJ Gov
- Kayleigh McEnany, WH Press Secretary
- Ronna McDaniel, Chair of RNC
- Kellyanne Conway, Former WH adviser
- Bill Stepien, Trump campaign manager
- Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina
- Sen. Mike Lee of Utah
- Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin
The market is now seeing a more clear Biden win and a Democratic sweep meaning the chances of a long court battle of a contested election less likely + more chances of additional fiscal stimulus under Democratic control of Congress and White House.
There is still no stimulus deal between Pelosi and Mnuchin but are still optimistic on a deal getting done before the election which helped drive the full risk on rally today including pushing Oil up 6%.
One concerning element of todays rally was everything went up including equities, gold, and the VIX.
Treasury prices dropped with yield on the 10YR Note gaining 7.54 basis points up 10.73% to yield 0.78 and moved in lockstep on a daily tick by tick basis with the equity markets today.
Piper Sandler key levels going forward for the S&P 500 are:
- 3,386 to 3,400 as upper end of trading range
- The lower end of the range being the 50-day moving average at 3,364 and the 200-day moving average at 3,112
All stocks in D&D’s portfolio finished in the green and the overall portfolio was up 2.71% today beating the markets.
D&D’s largest gainers on the day:
- CGC up 5.84%
- TSM up 4.63%
- SHOP up 3.53%
- AAPL up 2.99%
Markets closed at the highs of the day.
DOW up 1.68%
S&P 500 up 1.80% (3408.60)
NASDAQ up 2.32%
VIX up 1.19% to 27.96
Oil up 6.23% to $39.37 a barrel.
Gold up 0.52% to $1917.60
The CDC revises its guidelines to now show that in certain cases the virus can spread airborne indoors beyond a 6 foot radius.
Some NYC schools close due to new virus clusters, the nine zip codes have accounted for 20% of all new cases but only 7% of the population.
There are 34 states in the U.S. that are now seeing more virus cases than a month ago.
Global Virus cases: 35.33 million+
Global Virus deaths: 1.03 million+
U.S. Virus cases: 7.44 million+
U.S. Virus deaths: 210,043+
~ Dave James / Principal Trader and Market Strategist